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Blog · Board and management reporting · Freight brokers and 3PLs

Carrier concentration on ten loads: the whole arithmetic on one page

The complete carrier concentration calculation on ten loads across two lanes, small enough to check by hand: loads per carrier per lane, the top carrier's share, carriers used, the threshold by the lane's volume band, the top carrier's tender acceptance over the trailing eight weeks against eight weeks before, the two carrier subsidiaries that roll up to one, the shipper revenue exposed, and the assertion that loads per lane equal the sum across carriers, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own load ledger.

The short answerTen loads on two lanes, six carriers in the ledger of which two are subsidiaries of one group. Rolled up, the Chicago to Dallas lane has four loads with the largest carrier group and six loads in total: 67 percent top-carrier share against a threshold of 70 for its volume band, just under; but that carrier's acceptance has fallen from 96 to 79 percent over eight weeks. The Atlanta to Miami lane has four loads across three carriers, 50 percent, with steady acceptance. Loads per lane equal the sum across carriers. The Chicago lane is the finding for the trend, not the level. Every number can be reproduced by hand.

Carrier concentration is a count per carrier per lane and a share, and on ten loads it can be done by hand, including the subsidiary roll-up and the acceptance trend that changes the reading. This page works the roll-up, the shares, the thresholds, the trend, the exposure and the assertion.

The loads

Load Lane Carrier in ledger Carrier group Shipper Revenue
1 CHI to DAL C-1 G-1 S-1 $2,100
2 CHI to DAL C-1B G-1 S-1 $2,050
3 CHI to DAL C-2 G-2 S-1 $2,200
4 CHI to DAL C-1 G-1 S-2 $2,000
5 CHI to DAL C-3 G-3 S-1 $2,150
6 CHI to DAL C-1B G-1 S-2 $2,100
7 ATL to MIA C-4 G-4 S-3 $1,400
8 ATL to MIA C-5 G-5 S-3 $1,350
9 ATL to MIA C-4 G-4 S-3 $1,450
10 ATL to MIA C-6 G-6 S-4 $1,400

Carrier master: C-1 and C-1B are subsidiaries of group G-1.

Per lane, rolled up to the group

Lane Loads Groups used Top group Top group loads Top share
CHI to DAL 6 3 G-1 4 67%
ATL to MIA 4 3 G-4 2 50%

Without the roll-up: CHI to DAL shows C-1 at 2 of 6, 33 percent, four carriers. The concentration is hidden in the subsidiary.

The assertion

loads per lane = Σ carriers' loads: CHI to DAL 4 + 1 + 1 = 6; ATL to MIA 2 + 1 + 1 = 4. Holds.

The thresholds, by volume band

Loads per month Threshold
Under 10 Not assessed
10 to 50 85%
50 to 200 70%
Over 200 55%

At ten loads a fortnight, about twelve a month, CHI to DAL is assessed at 85 percent: 67 is under. On a real quarter's ledger the lane's monthly volume decides the band; the page states it.

The acceptance trend, G-1 on CHI to DAL

Period Tenders to G-1 Accepted Acceptance
Eight weeks before last 48 46 96%
Last eight weeks 52 41 79%

Seventeen points down. G-1 holds two thirds of the lane and is starting to refuse it.

Exposure

Lane Shipper revenue on the lane Share with the top group Exposed
CHI to DAL $12,600 (fortnight) 67% $8,250; about $18,000 a month

The reading

Lane Level Trend Finding
CHI to DAL 67%, under threshold Acceptance −17 pts Yes: the trend
ATL to MIA 50% Steady No

Where it goes wrong, even at ten

Subsidiaries separate. 33 percent and four carriers; nothing to see.

Level without trend. Under threshold; filed.

One threshold for all lanes. Both lanes flagged, or neither.

Uncovered loads dropped. A load with no carrier is the lane's current risk; it is listed, not omitted.

From ten to ten thousand

The same roll-up, share and threshold per lane, the same acceptance trend per carrier per lane, every week. Covirage runs it on the load ledger, the tender log and the carrier master. The carrier concentration guide covers the measure, and the tender rejection guide covers the trend that makes it a finding.

Questions people ask

Why roll up subsidiaries?

Because C-1 and C-1B are one carrier group with one capacity decision. Counted separately, the Chicago lane shows 50 percent top-carrier share and four carriers; rolled up, 67 and three. The carrier master carries the group.

Why does the threshold depend on volume?

A lane with four loads a fortnight is always concentrated and that is fine; a lane with two hundred a month at 80 percent is exposure. The threshold per volume band is stated; ten loads over two weeks is a small lane and the threshold is high.

Why is the trend the finding here?

Because the level is just under threshold and the top carrier's acceptance has dropped seventeen points. Concentration is a fact; falling acceptance from the carrier that holds two thirds of the lane is the warning that the lane is about to cascade.