Blog · Forecast and pipeline · Freight brokers and 3PLs
How a freight broker reads its tender log as a capacity signal: rejections over tenders per lane per week, the lanes where the rate rose against their own baseline before spot rates did, the carriers rejecting most on each lane, the cost of a rejection in the spread between the contracted rate and the cover rate, and the shipper conversation that a rising rejection rate should trigger before the lane goes to spot.
A broker learns a lane has tightened when the loads stop covering and the margin goes negative. The tender log knew three weeks earlier, when the first-choice carriers started refusing. This guide sets out the rejection rate per lane against its baseline, the carriers behind it, the cost per rejection, and the shipper list.
Per lane, per week:
Rejection rate = tenders refused ÷ tenders offered Baseline = median weekly rejection rate, trailing 26 weeks Rising if rate > baseline × multiple for a stated number of weeks
Per lane, per carrier:
Rejection rate, to find who is refusing
Per rejected load:
Cost of rejection = cover rate − contracted rate
Shipper and carrier identifiers only.
every refused tender's load has a subsequent accepted tender or is marked uncovered
A load with a refusal and no further tender is either uncovered or moved off-system, and it is listed.
| Lane | Tenders/wk | Rejection now | Baseline | Weeks rising | Loads affected | Cost of rejections/wk | Top rejecting carrier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI to DAL | 52 | 34% | 11% | 4 | 18 | $9,400 | C-0217, 61% |
| ATL to MIA | 35 | 9% | 8% | 0 | 3 | $600 | |
| LAX to PHX | 15 | 40% | 30% | 1 | 6 | $1,800 | C-0442, 70% |
The Chicago to Dallas lane's first-choice carrier now refuses six tenders in ten, the rate has tripled against baseline over a month, and it is costing nine thousand dollars a week to cover. The shipper conversation is this week. The Los Angeles lane has always been hard and one week does not make a trend.
| Shipper | Lane | Contracted rate | Recent cover rate | Spread | Loads/wk | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2207 | CHI to DAL | $1,850 | $2,370 | $520 | 52 | Rate adjustment, or 30% at spot |
Rejections read from the index. The nation tightened; the lane is what matters.
No carrier split. The lane looks tight when one carrier has repriced.
Cost of rejection not computed. The conversation has no number.
Conversation after the margin turns. The lane is already at a loss.
Mapped once, the tender log and the load ledger produce the rate per lane against baseline, the carrier split, the cost of rejections and the shipper list every week. Covirage builds this from the exports as they are. The freight page describes the setup, and the margin per load guide covers where the cost of rejections ends up.
A market index says capacity is tightening nationally. The broker's log says which of its lanes, with which carriers, at what cost per load, this week. The index is context; the log is the list.
The rate at which a rejected load was eventually moved, usually with a spot carrier. Cover rate minus contracted rate is the cost of the rejection, per load, from the load ledger. Summed per lane, it is what the rising rejection rate is costing.
A contracted lane whose rejection rate has doubled is a lane whose contracted rate is now below market. The conversation is a rate adjustment, a volume commitment change, or an agreed share of loads at spot, and it is better had at 20 percent rejection than at 60.