Why a month-to-date figure read on the 12th misleads in three predictable ways, the day-of-month profile that says how much of a normal month has usually landed by each day, the projection that follows and its range, which measures can be read mid-period and which cannot, and the rule that a partial-period figure is always shown with its expected share and never beside a full period as if comparable.
On the 12th, revenue is at 31 percent of plan and the sales leader calls a meeting. By the 31st it is at 102 percent, because that is how the company's months land. The day-of-month profile would have said so on the 12th. This guide sets out the profile, the projection and its range, which measures can be read mid-period, and the display rule.
| Misleading read | Why |
|---|---|
| Scaling by days elapsed | Revenue lands unevenly; the last week is often a third of the month |
| Comparing to last month's full figure | Partial against full, on the same chart |
| Reading a ratio mid-period | Partial numerator, full denominator; the ratio means nothing |
From the company's own trailing twelve months:
Share landed by day d = median over months of (revenue through day d ÷ month total)
| Day | Median share landed | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 9% | 6% | 13% |
| 12 | 26% | 21% | 32% |
| 20 | 51% | 45% | 58% |
| 26 | 72% | 66% | 79% |
| 31 | 100% |
Projected month = month-to-date ÷ share landed by today Range = month-to-date ÷ high share, to month-to-date ÷ low share
On the 12th, month-to-date $1.30m, share 26 percent (21 to 32): projected $5.0m, range $4.1m to $6.2m. Plan $4.2m. The range spans the plan, and the honest statement is that the month is on track within the range, not that it is at 31 percent.
| Measure | Mid-period | Shown as |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue against plan | Projected, with range | Projection and range |
| Pipeline closing this period | Yes; it is a snapshot | As at today |
| Coverage at cadence | No: cadence is per period | Last full period, or rolling window stated |
| Share of wallet | No | Last full period |
| Concentration | No | Last full period |
| Dormancy | Yes: days silent is a point-in-time measure | As at today |
| Untouched list | Yes | As at today |
A partial-period figure is shown with the share of period expected to have landed, and its projection with a range. It is never placed beside a full period as a comparable bar.
Days-elapsed scaling. The meeting on the 12th.
Partial beside full. The chart that shows every month collapsing.
Ratios read mid-period. Coverage at 40 percent on the 12th, because the cadence is monthly.
Profile from a benchmark. The company's own months land its own way.
Mapped once, the ledger's history produces the day-of-month profile, and each day's month-to-date is shown with its expected share, its projection and its range, with the ratio measures held at the last full period. Covirage builds this from the exports as they are. The forecast analysis solution describes the setup, and the run rate guide covers the same trap over longer windows.
Because if forty percent of a normal month's revenue lands in the last five days, the 12th has typically seen a quarter of the month, not forty percent. Scaling by days projects a miss that is not there, and the sales leader spends two weeks reacting to it. The profile is from the company's own history and it is usually stable.
The share landed by the 12th varies month to month; the projection is the month-to-date figure divided by the range of that share, low to high, from the trailing twelve months. It is a range on purpose. A single projected number on the 12th is a guess with decimals.
Any ratio whose denominator is a period total: share of wallet, coverage at cadence, concentration, products per customer. Mid-period they compare a partial numerator to a partial or a full denominator and mean nothing. They are shown as of the last full period, labelled.