Blog · Forecast and pipeline · Insurance
Build a pending-renewal income range from explicit assumptions. Separate confirmed income, uncertain outcomes and new business.
An expiry calendar tells the agency when business is due, but not what income will be retained. Treating every pending renewal as certain overstates confidence; treating all as lost understates it. A scenario view makes uncertainty visible without pretending to predict individual clients precisely.
One row represents: one due client or policy term with a defined income basis and current decision status.
Useful fields: Term or client ID, due month, prior agency income, confirmed renewal income, pending status, scenario assumptions, expected commission or fee change and snapshot date.
Freeze the current status population. Sum confirmed outcomes at their agreed income basis. Apply documented assumptions to pending cases using comparable history where available, clearly labeling judgment-based inputs. Keep potential new business outside the renewal scenario so the two sources of income are not confused.
The following records and amounts are invented to show the method. They are not customer results, industry benchmarks or a forecast of Covirage performance.
| Component | Low | Base / high |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed renewals | $40,000 | $40,000 / $40,000 |
| Pending prior income: $20,000 | 50% = $10,000 | 75% = $15,000 / 90% = $18,000 |
| Total scenario | $50,000 | $55,000 / $58,000 |
The renewal range is $50,000 to $58,000 under the stated assumptions. The $55,000 base case is a scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. It also assumes no change to pending-case commission or fees; if that assumption is unrealistic, the model needs a separate income-change factor.
A probability copied from another agency or a broad industry statistic may not fit this book. Small or concentrated pending populations deserve account-level review. Scenarios organize uncertainty; they do not remove it.
Bring a small, authorized sample to Covirage for insurance agencies and brokers. Use the sample to discuss the fields and views your business needs. A dashboard or AI analyst can help explore this question when the required data and definitions are available; missing records still need to be resolved.
Upload sample data to check its structure. Keep unnecessary personal, claims and policyholder details out of an initial sample. The sample check does not establish that every analysis in this guide is available automatically.
These references provide terminology or governance background. The worked example and proposed review method above are original illustrations, not prescribed industry standards.
Label it as a scenario unless a validated prediction method supports that claim. Show assumptions, population and sensitivity so users can assess uncertainty.