Blog · Forecast and pipeline · Sales teams
Win rate, close rate and conversion rate are used interchangeably in sales reporting and have different denominators. Win rate is won over decided. Close rate is usually won over all opportunities created, decided or not. Conversion rate is the share moving from any one stage to the next. This page sets out the three definitions, computes all three on the same hundred opportunities, shows when each is the right one, and lists the questions to ask before comparing a figure to anyone else's.
Three rates, often reported under one name. The difference is what goes underneath.
| Rate | Numerator | Denominator | Sensitive to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | Deals won | Deals won + deals lost, from a stated stage | Whether losses get marked |
| Close rate | Deals won | All opportunities created in the cohort | Cycle length; how old the cohort is |
| Conversion rate, stage to stage | Records that reached stage n+1 | Records that reached stage n | Stage definitions |
Usage varies between companies and CRM vendors; some define close rate exactly as win rate is defined here. That is the point: ask for the denominator.
One hundred opportunities created in a quarter, observed two quarters later:
| Outcome | Count |
|---|---|
| Won | 22 |
| Lost, marked | 28 |
| Open, active | 20 |
| Open, stalled: no activity in 90 days | 30 |
Stages reached: all 100 qualified; 60 reached discovery; 44 reached proposal; 22 won.
Win rate = 22 ÷ (22 + 28) = 44% Close rate = 22 ÷ 100 = 22% Win rate with stalled counted as lost = 22 ÷ (22 + 28 + 30) = 27.5%
| Stage step | Conversion |
|---|---|
| Qualified to discovery | 60 ÷ 100 = 60% |
| Discovery to proposal | 44 ÷ 60 = 73% |
| Proposal to won | 22 ÷ 44 = 50% |
| Product of the three | 22% |
The product of the stage conversions equals the close rate, which is the check that the stage counts are consistent. The 44 percent win rate is the figure this team would put on a slide, and it is the least informative of the set, because thirty dead deals are in neither half of it.
Win rate, for forecasting and coverage. The coverage a team needs is one over its win rate on the pipeline it counts. Use it by value, from the stage coverage is counted from, with stalled deals treated as lost. The pipeline coverage benchmark uses it this way.
Stage conversion, for diagnosis. A team at 73 percent from discovery to proposal and 50 percent from proposal to won is losing at the proposal. Another at 40 and 80 is losing earlier, on fit. The same close rate, different fixes.
Close rate by cohort, for lead source and rep comparison. Opportunities created in a period, followed until enough time has passed for most to resolve, won over all. It cannot be flattered by leaving deals open. By source:
| Source | Created | Won | Close rate | Win rate as reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Referral | 20 | 9 | 45% | 64% |
| Inbound | 50 | 10 | 20% | 42% |
| Outbound | 30 | 3 | 10% | 38% |
Win rates make the three sources look similar. Close rates do not.
A benchmark that does not answer these is a number, not a comparison. The win rate benchmark page gives ranges by stage, and the Excel guide computes win rate from a CRM export.
Win rate quoted as close rate. Forty-four percent put into a lead-volume calculation that needed twenty-two; the plan is short by half.
Cohort too young. Close rate on last month's opportunities, most still open; the figure is near zero and means nothing.
Stage conversion without stage definitions. "Proposal" means a sent document to one rep and a conversation to another.
Stalled deals ignored everywhere. They are the difference between the rates, and nobody owns them.
Won over decided is win rate; won over created is close rate; stage over prior stage is conversion rate. Report win rate with its stage and its treatment of stalled deals, use stage conversion to find where deals die, and use cohort close rate to compare sources and reps. Covirage computes all three from the opportunity export, with the denominators stated on the table.
Win rate from qualified opportunity, by value, with stalled deals counted as lost, for forecasting and coverage. Stage conversion rates for diagnosing where deals are lost. Close rate by creation cohort for judging lead quality by source, because it does not let unclosed deals disappear. Each answers a different question.
Because its denominator includes opportunities that never reached a decision: still open, abandoned, or quietly dead. Those are in neither the numerator nor the denominator of win rate. A team that rarely marks losses has a high win rate and a low close rate, and the gap between the two measures its housekeeping.
It is one of the stage conversion rates: leads that became opportunities over leads received. It belongs to marketing and qualification, and sits upstream of the other two. Multiplying it by the close rate gives lead-to-close, which is the figure to use for working out how many leads a target needs.