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Blog · Forecast and pipeline · SaaS

Time to value and retention: the onboarding milestone that predicts the first renewal

How a SaaS customer success team finds the onboarding milestone that most separates renewed from churned accounts, from the usage export, the onboarding log and the renewal outcomes: days to each milestone per account, first-renewal retention by whether and when the milestone was reached, the milestone with the largest separation, the accounts in onboarding now that are past its typical day without reaching it, and the honest statement that it is an association.

The short answerEvery SaaS onboarding has milestones: first login, first integration, first report run, first team member added. From the usage export and the onboarding log, each account has a day for each milestone, and from the renewal outcomes, whether it renewed. The milestone whose reach-or-not and reach-by-when most separates renewed from churned accounts is the one that matters at this company, and the accounts in onboarding now that are past its typical day without reaching it are the list. It is an association from observational data, stated as such, and it is enough to direct the success team's week.

A customer success team runs an onboarding playbook with twelve milestones and treats them equally. The company's own renewal outcomes say one of them matters far more than the others. This guide sets out how to find it from the usage export, the onboarding log and the outcomes, the typical day, and the list of accounts behind it now.

The measures

Per account, per milestone:

Days to milestone = milestone date − contract start, or not reached Reached by typical day: yes or no

Per milestone:

Typical day = median days to milestone among renewed accounts Retention if reached by typical day; retention if not; separation = the difference

Per account in onboarding:

Behind if past the typical day for the key milestone without reaching it

The rows you need

  • Usage export: account, event type, first date per event.
  • Onboarding log: account, milestone, date.
  • Contracts: account, start date, ARR, first renewal date, outcome.

Account identifiers only.

The assertion

every account with a first renewal outcome has a contract start date and a usage record, or is listed as unmeasurable

A worked separation table

Accounts with a first renewal outcome in the last two years: 410.

Milestone Typical day Retention if reached by then Retention if not Separation
First login 3 78% 71% 7 pts
First integration connected 14 91% 52% 39 pts
First report run 21 84% 66% 18 pts
Third team member added 30 88% 61% 27 pts
Training completed 45 80% 74% 6 pts

The first integration by day fourteen is the milestone. Training completion, which the playbook spends the most hours on, separates almost nothing.

The list, now

Account ARR Contract start Days elapsed First integration Owner
4471 $180,000 22 days ago 22 Not reached CSM-04
2210 $86,000 19 days ago 19 Not reached CSM-11
9034 $290,000 10 days ago 10 Reached day 6

Two accounts past day fourteen without the integration, and the history says their first renewal is at coin-flip odds unless it happens. That is this week.

Stated honestly

Accounts that connect an integration early may be the ones that were going to succeed anyway. The report says associated with, and it still tells the success team which milestone to spend its hours on and which accounts to call.

Where it goes wrong

All milestones treated alike. Hours on training; renewals lost on integration.

Milestone from a playbook. Somebody else's product's milestone.

List after the renewal. The milestone matters in week two.

Read as cause. Association, stated.

Every week, the separation and the list

Mapped once, the usage export, the onboarding log and the contracts produce the separation table and the behind list every week, and the table is recomputed each quarter as outcomes land. Covirage builds this from the exports as they are. The SaaS page describes the setup, and the seat utilisation guide covers the signal that follows onboarding once the account is live.

Questions people ask

Why not use a standard milestone?

Because the milestone that matters is the company's own: at one product it is the first integration, at another the first shared report. The company's own outcomes say which, and a standard one from a playbook may be the wrong one. The analysis finds it.

How is separation measured?

First-renewal retention among accounts that reached the milestone by its typical day, against those that did not. A milestone with ninety percent retention on one side and fifty on the other separates; one with seventy on both does not. The largest gap is the milestone to manage to.

What is the typical day?

The median days from contract start to the milestone among accounts that renewed. Accounts in onboarding past that day without the milestone are behind the renewers' pace, and the list is them, ranked by ARR.