The complete sales velocity calculation and decomposition across two quarters, small enough to check by hand: qualified opportunities, win rate from outcomes, average won value and cycle length from won deals, velocity as revenue per day, the four one-factor recomputations that attribute the change, the interaction residual, and why cycle length explains more than the whole decline, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own snapshots and outcomes.
Sales velocity is four factors in one formula, and a change in it can be attributed to each factor by recomputation. On two quarters the arithmetic fits on a page. This page works the factors, the velocity, the four attributions, the residual, and the finding.
Velocity = opportunities × win rate × average won value ÷ cycle length, in revenue per day
| Factor | Last quarter | This quarter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualified opportunities | 120 | 131 | Snapshots: opportunities reaching qualified in the quarter |
| Win rate | 28% | 27% | Outcomes in the quarter: won ÷ (won + lost) |
| Average won value | $42,000 | $43,000 | Won deals in the quarter |
| Cycle length | 61 days | 79 days | Won deals: qualification to close |
Last quarter = 120 × 0.28 × 42,000 ÷ 61 = 1,411,200 ÷ 61 = $23,134 per day This quarter = 131 × 0.27 × 43,000 ÷ 79 = 1,520,910 ÷ 79 = $19,252 per day Change = −$3,882 per day, −16.8%
Move one factor to this quarter's value; hold the other three at last quarter's.
| Move only | Computation | Velocity | Attributable change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opportunities | 131 × 0.28 × 42,000 ÷ 61 | $25,255 | +$2,121 |
| Win rate | 120 × 0.27 × 42,000 ÷ 61 | $22,308 | −$826 |
| Average value | 120 × 0.28 × 43,000 ÷ 61 | $23,685 | +$551 |
| Cycle length | 120 × 0.28 × 42,000 ÷ 79 | $17,863 | −$5,271 |
| Sum of the four | −$3,425 | ||
| Actual change | −$3,882 | ||
| Interaction residual | −$457 |
Cycle length alone would have cut velocity by $5,271 a day, more than the whole decline of $3,882. The other three factors together added $1,846 and were overwhelmed.
Eighteen days of cycle. The stage duration table for won deals this quarter against last:
| Stage | Last quarter, median days | This quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Qualified to discovery complete | 12 | 13 |
| Discovery to proposal sent | 18 | 19 |
| Proposal to negotiation | 20 | 34 |
| Negotiation to close | 11 | 13 |
Fourteen of the eighteen days are in proposal. The slip count list has the deals.
Velocity read alone. Down 17 percent, cause unknown; the reaction is "sell more".
Factors from the CRM summary. Win rate from open probabilities reads 40 percent; the decomposition is fiction.
Attributions forced to sum. The residual hidden in one factor.
Cycle from today's close dates. Every open deal's date is in the future; the cycle reads short.
The same four factors per rep and per segment per quarter, the same one-factor recomputations. Covirage runs it on the snapshots and outcomes. The sales velocity guide covers the measure, and the slip count guide covers the deals behind the eighteen days.
Because the formula multiplies and divides, so the change cannot be split by subtraction. Holding three factors at last quarter's values and moving one shows what that one alone would have done. The four attributions do not sum exactly, and the residual is shown rather than hidden.
Opportunities from qualified snapshots in the quarter; win rate from outcomes reached in the quarter; average value and cycle from the won deals among them. Not from open pipeline probabilities, and not from today's close dates.
Eighteen days of cycle length, and the stage duration table says which stage grew. The slip count list usually has the deals. The other three factors improved; the team is not selling worse, it is closing slower.