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Blog · Forecast and pipeline

Sales velocity: the four factors computed from your CRM, and the one that usually moves

The sales velocity formula, opportunities times win rate times average deal value divided by cycle length, how to compute each factor from CRM snapshots and closed outcomes rather than from the CRM's own summary, per rep and per segment, why the factors are not independent, and how to find which one changed when velocity did, with a worked decomposition.

The short answerSales velocity is qualified opportunities created in the period, times win rate, times average won deal value, divided by average cycle length in days: revenue per day the pipeline produces. Each factor is computed from CRM snapshots and closed outcomes, per rep and per segment. When velocity changes, decompose it: hold three factors at their prior values and move one, for each of the four, and the factor whose move explains most of the change is the finding. It is usually cycle length, and it is usually a stage.

Sales velocity is a single number made of four, and the four are what a sales leader can act on. Computed from the CRM's own summary they are usually wrong in the same direction. This guide sets out each factor from snapshots and outcomes, the decomposition that says which one moved, and the one that usually did.

The formula

Velocity = opportunities × win rate × average won value ÷ cycle length

Revenue per day.

Each factor, from the data

Factor Compute from Not from
Opportunities Qualified opportunities created in the period, from snapshots Open pipeline count
Win rate Won ÷ (won + lost) among opportunities that reached an outcome in the period Open pipeline probabilities
Average won value Mean closed-won value in the period Open deal values
Cycle length Mean days from qualification to close, won deals, in the period Today's close dates

The rows you need

  • Pipeline snapshots: opportunity, rep, segment, stage, value, snapshot week.
  • Outcomes: opportunity, won or lost, date, value.

Opportunity and rep identifiers only.

The decomposition

Velocity this quarter against last. For each factor, recompute velocity with that factor at this quarter's value and the other three at last quarter's. The change attributable to each factor is the difference. The four attributions sum, approximately, to the total change; the residual is the interaction, shown.

A worked decomposition

Factor Last quarter This quarter
Opportunities 120 131
Win rate 28% 27%
Average won value $42,000 $43,000
Cycle length 61 days 79 days
Velocity $23,100/day $19,200/day
Move only Velocity Attributable change
Opportunities $25,200 +$2,100
Win rate $22,300 −$800
Deal value $23,700 +$600
Cycle length $17,800 −$5,300
Interaction −$500

Velocity fell by seventeen percent and cycle length explains more than all of it. The other three improved. The finding is eighteen days, and the stage-level cycle data says which stage grew.

Per rep

Rep Opps Win rate Avg won Cycle Velocity Change Driver
R-04 41 22% $48,000 92 $4,700/day −31% Cycle
R-11 38 34% $39,000 58 $8,700/day +4%

Rep R-04's cycle is a third longer than the team's and grew. The deals that slipped are the reason, and the slip count list has them by name.

Where it goes wrong

Factors from the CRM summary. Win rate from open probabilities; cycle from today's dates.

Velocity read without decomposition. Down seventeen percent, cause unknown.

Factors read as independent. More opportunities at a lower win rate called growth.

Monthly win rate. Six outcomes; a rate that swings thirty points.

Every quarter, four factors and the driver

Mapped once, the pipeline snapshots and the outcomes produce the four factors per rep and segment, the decomposition and the driver every quarter. Covirage builds this from the exports as they are. The forecast analysis solution describes the setup, and the slip count guide covers the deals that usually explain a longer cycle.

Questions people ask

Why not use the CRM's velocity report?

Because its win rate is often computed on the current pipeline, its deal value on open deals rather than won ones, and its cycle length on whatever close dates are in the system today. Computed from snapshots and outcomes, each factor describes what actually happened to deals that reached an outcome.

Are the four factors independent?

No. Qualifying more opportunities lowers win rate; chasing bigger deals lengthens the cycle. The decomposition shows which moved, and the sales leader reads the four together. A velocity gain from more opportunities at a lower win rate is a different result from the same gain at the same win rate.

What period?

A quarter for the factors, on opportunities that reached an outcome in that quarter, with the cycle measured from qualification. Monthly is too noisy for win rate at most teams; the report shows the counts behind each factor.