Blog · Forecast and pipeline · Hospitality
The complete pace calculation on one hotel for one future month, small enough to check by hand: rooms and revenue on the books by segment from today's reservation snapshot, the same month at the same point last year from the kept snapshot, pace by segment in rooms and as a share, budget by segment, pickup needed, historical pickup from this point from three years of snapshots, the segment that is behind while the comparable set is ahead, and the identity that segments sum to the snapshot, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own snapshots.
Pace is today's books against last year's at the same point, and on one property for one month it fits on a page. This page works pace by segment, budget and pickup, historical pickup, the comparable set and the identity. Stay month: October. Snapshot date: 1 June.
| Segment | On the books, 1 Jun this year | On the books, 1 Jun last year, for last October | Pace, rooms | Pace, share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 1,200 | 2,100 | −900 | −43% |
| Corporate | 1,900 | 1,750 | +150 | +9% |
| Leisure | 800 | 850 | −50 | −6% |
| Total | 3,900 | 4,700 | −800 | −17% |
Σ segments = snapshot total: 1,200 + 1,900 + 800 = 3,900. Holds.
A reservation with an unmapped rate code would sit outside the segments and the sum would fall short of the system's total; it is listed.
Pickup needed = budget − on the books Historical pickup = median rooms added from 1 June to October, last three years
| Segment | Budget | Pickup needed | Historical pickup | Plausible? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 3,000 | 1,800 | 700 | No: needs 2.6× history |
| Corporate | 3,400 | 1,500 | 1,600 | Yes |
| Leisure | 2,800 | 2,000 | 2,100 | Yes |
| Total | 9,200 | 5,300 | 4,400 | Short by about 900, all in group |
| Group pace | |
|---|---|
| This property | −43% |
| Comparable set, median of six city full-service hotels | +6% |
The market's group business is up; this property's is down by nearly half.
| Segment | Revenue on the books | Last year at this point | Average rate | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | $168,000 | $290,000 | $140 | $138 |
| Corporate | $300,000 | $270,000 | $158 | $154 |
Group rate is holding; group rooms are not. This is a volume problem, and it belongs to the group sales manager in June.
No kept snapshot. Pace cannot be computed; the property is "behind" by feel.
Total pace only. Minus 17, and the revenue manager cuts rates on segments that are fine.
Pickup needed without history. 5,300 looks reachable; group's 1,800 against 700 is not.
Comparable set skipped. A market group slump blamed on the sales manager, or the reverse.
The same two snapshots per property and stay month, the same segments, the same historical pickup, every week. Covirage runs it on the kept reservation exports and the budget. The pace guide covers the measure, and the segment mix guide covers the comparable set.
From the reservation export taken on 1 June last year and kept. The reservation system holds today's books only; without a kept export there is no pace. A weekly export, filed by date, is the whole requirement.
The rooms the property added between 1 June and the stay month in each of the last three years, as a median, per segment. It is what the property typically picks up from this point, and it says whether the pickup needed is plausible.
Because a group pace of minus 43 could be the market. The set's median group pace is plus 6: the market is fine and this property's group book is not. The set is stated on the line.