Weeks of cover

Implied channel inventory, cumulative sell-in less cumulative sell-out per retailer per SKU, divided by the trailing weekly sell-out rate. Rising for a quarter means the channel is holding stock already booked as revenue, and next quarter's shipments fall by it.

DefinitionImplied channel inventory, cumulative sell-in less cumulative sell-out per retailer per SKU, divided by the trailing weekly sell-out rate. Rising for a quarter means the channel is holding stock already booked as revenue, and next quarter's shipments fall by it.

Trend over level

Starting inventory is often unknown; the level is uncertain and the trend still holds.

Promotion or loading

Sell-out up with sell-in is a promotion; sell-in up with sell-out flat is a loading. The calendar says which.

How it is computed

Implied retailer inventory, meaning opening stock plus cumulative sell-in minus cumulative sell-out, divided by average weekly sell-out.

Example

Opening stock 9,000, shipments of 26,000 and sell-out of 22,000 over thirteen weeks leave 13,000 units. At 1,700 a week that is 7.6 weeks of cover against a usual four.

Where it goes wrong

Sell-in read as demand. The retailer is overstocked and the next order will be small.

Articles that use this term

Forecast and pipeline · FMCG and CPG brands

Sell-in against sell-out per retailer: the inventory building in the channel

How a CPG brand compares what it shipped to each retailer with what the retailer sold through, from the shipment ledger and the sell-out data: the channel inventory implied by the difference, weeks of cover per retailer and per SKU, the retailers where sell-in has run ahead of sell-out for a quarter, the promotions that loaded the channel, and why a strong shipment quarter with rising channel inventory is next quarter's problem.

16 Sept 20262 min read Wallet share and penetration · FMCG and CPG brands

Ten questions a CPG commercial director asks, and the table that answers each

The ten questions a consumer goods commercial director puts to the sales and trade marketing teams, where are the distribution voids, which stores stopped selling a SKU on a Tuesday, which promotions moved volume and which moved it forward, which retailers are building inventory in the channel, which chargebacks are disputable, what is range penetration by channel, which accounts are under the range norm, what is the weekly gap list per store, what did trade spend buy per net unit, and what changed, each with the table from the sell-out, shipment and deduction files, and the answer to send back.

16 Sept 20263 min read Territory, capacity and quota planning · FMCG and CPG brands

Net lift on one promotion at one account: the whole arithmetic on one page

The complete promotional net lift calculation on one SKU at one retail account over sixteen weeks, small enough to check by hand: the eight pre-promotion weeks and their median as the baseline, the two promotion weeks and the gross lift, the four post-promotion weeks and the dip, net lift, trade spend, cost per net unit, the same mechanic at a second account for comparison, and the assertion that the account's weekly sell-out sums to the retailer's total, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own sell-out files.

17 Sept 20262 min read Board and management reporting · FMCG and CPG brands

Sales KPIs for CPG and consumer brands: ten measures that matter, each with its formula and the export it comes from

The ten sales KPIs a consumer goods brand should run on, each with its formula, the export it comes from and what it tells you: distribution and range penetration by channel, distribution voids, sell-in against sell-out, weeks of cover at the retailer, out-of-stocks inferred from sell-out gaps, promotional net lift, trade spend return, retailer chargebacks by reason, OTIF under each retailer's rule, and rate of sale per store. Also the three measures most brands miss, the figures to drop, the identities, and who owns what.

17 Sept 20264 min read How-to guides

The worked examples: every measure on ten rows you can check by hand

A hub for the worked-example pages on this site: each core measure computed in full on a book small enough to check by hand, ten accounts, ten deals, ten invoice lines, five clients, four territories, with every intermediate figure shown and the identity at the end. This page lists them by measure with what each example demonstrates, so a reader can reproduce the arithmetic before running it on their own export.

17 Sept 20268 min read Forecast and pipeline · FMCG and CPG brands

Weeks of cover on one SKU at one retailer: the whole arithmetic on one page

The complete sell-in against sell-out calculation on one SKU at one retailer over thirteen weeks, small enough to check by hand: weekly shipments and weekly sell-out, cumulative each, implied channel inventory from a stated starting figure, the trailing eight-week sell-out rate, weeks of cover per week, the promotion weeks that explain one build and the loading that explains another, the identity that implied inventory never goes negative, and the next-quarter shipment effect, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own files.

17 Sept 20263 min read