Inferred out-of-stock

A zero-sales run at a store for a SKU that is too long to be chance at the SKU's own sales rate there. Lost sales are the run times the rate. Labelled inferred on every line, because the brand does not see the shelf; the pattern by distribution centre is the conversation with the buyer.

DefinitionA zero-sales run at a store for a SKU that is too long to be chance at the SKU's own sales rate there. Lost sales are the run times the rate. Labelled inferred on every line, because the brand does not see the shelf; the pattern by distribution centre is the conversation with the buyer.

Threshold per store-SKU

A five-a-day SKU has no chance of a three-day zero run. A one-a-week SKU often has a two-week one.

Missing files are not zero runs

A store absent from the file for a period is not inferred for that period.

How it is computed

A run of zero-sales days for a product at a store that is longer than chance allows at that product's usual rate there, while similar stores kept selling.

Example

A product sells four a day at a store. Five consecutive zero days has a probability well under one in a thousand. Similar stores sold normally. Lost sales are about twenty units.

Where it goes wrong

Slow sellers flagged. A product that sells one a week will show zero days constantly; the rule has to use the product's own rate.

Articles that use this term

Data quality and reconciliation · FMCG and CPG brands

Out-of-stock per store from sell-out gaps: the SKU that stopped selling on a Tuesday

How a CPG brand infers out-of-stocks per store per SKU from daily or weekly sell-out data without shelf audits: the SKU's own sales rate at the store, the gap that is too long to be chance, the lost sales valued at that rate, the stores and SKUs where gaps recur, and why the inferred figure is a list for the field team rather than a claim against the retailer.

16 Sept 20263 min read Wallet share and penetration · FMCG and CPG brands

Ten questions a CPG commercial director asks, and the table that answers each

The ten questions a consumer goods commercial director puts to the sales and trade marketing teams, where are the distribution voids, which stores stopped selling a SKU on a Tuesday, which promotions moved volume and which moved it forward, which retailers are building inventory in the channel, which chargebacks are disputable, what is range penetration by channel, which accounts are under the range norm, what is the weekly gap list per store, what did trade spend buy per net unit, and what changed, each with the table from the sell-out, shipment and deduction files, and the answer to send back.

16 Sept 20263 min read Board and management reporting · FMCG and CPG brands

Sales KPIs for CPG and consumer brands: ten measures that matter, each with its formula and the export it comes from

The ten sales KPIs a consumer goods brand should run on, each with its formula, the export it comes from and what it tells you: distribution and range penetration by channel, distribution voids, sell-in against sell-out, weeks of cover at the retailer, out-of-stocks inferred from sell-out gaps, promotional net lift, trade spend return, retailer chargebacks by reason, OTIF under each retailer's rule, and rate of sale per store. Also the three measures most brands miss, the figures to drop, the identities, and who owns what.

17 Sept 20264 min read