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Blog · Forecast and pipeline

Pipeline coverage on ten deals: the whole arithmetic on one page

The complete pipeline coverage calculation on ten open deals small enough to check by hand: the deals by stage and value, the team's historical conversion by stage at this point in the quarter, the face value, the weighted value, the slip counts and the slip adjustment, the remaining target, coverage three ways, the needed multiple, and the deal list that explains the gap, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own snapshot.

The short answerTen open deals closing this quarter, across four stages. Face value is their sum, $1.3m. The team's historical conversion at week four is discovery 11 percent, proposal 42 percent, negotiation 68 percent, verbal 85 percent; weighted value is each deal's value times its stage's rate, $0.51m. Three deals have slipped twice or more and the team's close rate for those is 16 percent, so the slip-adjusted value is $0.42m. Remaining target is $400,000. Coverage is 3.3 times on face, 1.3 on weighted, 1.05 slip-adjusted, against a needed multiple of 1.0 on weighted terms. Every number can be reproduced by hand.

Pipeline coverage is a sum times a rate over a target, and the rate is the part that goes wrong. On ten deals the whole calculation can be checked by hand. This page works it: face, weighted, slip-adjusted, three coverages, and the deal list behind the gap.

The deals, at week four

Deal Stage Value Slip count
1 Verbal $120,000 0
2 Negotiation $180,000 1
3 Negotiation $90,000 3
4 Proposal $150,000 0
5 Proposal $110,000 2
6 Proposal $60,000 0
7 Discovery $200,000 0
8 Discovery $160,000 0
9 Discovery $130,000 4
10 Discovery $100,000 0
Face value $1,300,000

The team's own conversion at week four

Stage Historical conversion Range over four quarters
Verbal 85% 78 to 92
Negotiation 68% 61 to 74
Proposal 42% 35 to 48
Discovery 11% 6 to 16
Any stage, slipped 2+ 16% 9 to 22

Weighted value

Deal Value Rate Weighted
1 120,000 85% 102,000
2 180,000 68% 122,400
3 90,000 68% 61,200
4 150,000 42% 63,000
5 110,000 42% 46,200
6 60,000 42% 25,200
7 200,000 11% 22,000
8 160,000 11% 17,600
9 130,000 11% 14,300
10 100,000 11% 11,000
Total $484,900

Slip-adjusted

Deals 3, 5 and 9 have slipped two or more times. Their rate becomes 16 percent.

Deal Weighted Slip-adjusted
3 61,200 14,400
5 46,200 17,600
9 14,300 20,800
Others 363,200 363,200
Total 484,900 $416,000

Deal 9's adjusted weight is higher than its discovery weight; the slip rate is applied as stated, and the report shows both.

Coverage, three ways

Remaining target: $400,000.

Face coverage = 1,300,000 ÷ 400,000 = 3.25× Weighted coverage = 484,900 ÷ 400,000 = 1.21× Slip-adjusted coverage = 416,000 ÷ 400,000 = 1.04× Needed multiple on weighted terms = 1.0; on face terms = 1 ÷ (484,900 ÷ 1,300,000) = 2.7×

Face says three times covered. Slip-adjusted says just covered, with no margin.

The deal list behind the gap

Concern Deals Value at face What they are worth
Discovery-stage value counted at face 7, 8, 9, 10 $590,000 $64,900 weighted
Slipped twice or more 3, 5, 9 $330,000 $52,800 adjusted

Two thirds of the face value is in discovery or slipping. The rep's week is deals 4 and 6, the proposals that have not slipped, and creating pipeline for next quarter.

The identity

Σ deals' face = $1,300,000 = snapshot total every deal in one stage with one slip count

Where it goes wrong, even at ten

Face value as coverage. 3.25 times; the quarter is missed.

CRM probabilities. Discovery at 25 percent in the CRM doubles the weighted figure.

Slips ignored. $69,000 of weighted value on deals that keep moving.

Rates from one quarter. The discovery rate ranges 6 to 16; one quarter could be either end.

From ten to ten thousand

The same columns per deal, rates per stage from the team's own snapshots and outcomes, per rep and region. Covirage runs it on the weekly pipeline export. The pipeline coverage guide covers deriving the rates, and the pipeline table reading guide covers reading the result at scale.

Questions people ask

Where do the conversion rates come from?

From the team's own past quarters: the share of pipeline value in each stage at week four that closed won by quarter end. Not from the CRM's stage probabilities, which someone set in a workshop. Four quarters is the floor; the range is shown.

What is the needed multiple on weighted terms?

One, because weighted value is already the expected close. On face value, the needed multiple is one over the blended conversion, here about 2.6. Both are shown; the weighted figure is the one to read.

How does the slip adjustment work?

A deal that has slipped twice or more closes, at this team, at 16 percent whatever its stage. Its weight is replaced by that rate. The difference between weighted and slip-adjusted is the value the forecast carries on deals that keep moving.