Blog · Forecast and pipeline · Finance and FP&A teams
A reading guide for a forecast bridge from last period's number to this one: the check that the lines sum before anything is read, the order to read them in, closed, slipped, lost, new, resized, the deal list behind each line as the thing to open, the line with no deals behind it as the one to distrust, the repeat slippers across bridges, and the two lines that set next period's calibration.
A forecast bridge is a table of five or six lines between last month's number and this one, and its value is entirely in what is behind each line. This guide is the reading order: the sum, the lines, the deal list behind each, the line to distrust, the repeat slippers, and the calibration.
last period's forecast + Σ lines = this period's forecast every deal that changed is on exactly one line
If either fails, stop; the bridge is broken.
| Line | Deals behind it | Read for |
|---|---|---|
| Closed won | Deals that closed since last period | What was right |
| Slipped out | Deals whose close date moved past the period | Who pushed, and how many times |
| Lost | Deals closed lost | Where and why |
| New in | Deals created or pulled into the period | Whether they are real at this stage |
| Resized | Deals whose value changed | Up or down, and by whom |
| Adjustment | None | Distrust; require an explanation |
| Line | Value | Deals |
|---|---|---|
| Last month's forecast | $4.6m | |
| Closed won | −$1.2m to actual; +$0.0m to forecast | 9 deals closed, in the forecast at $1.3m: $0.1m under |
| Slipped out | −$0.9m | 7 deals; 4 of them slipped for the second time |
| Lost | −$0.6m | 4 deals; 3 at the same competitor |
| New in | +$0.4m | 5 deals, all proposal stage |
| Resized | +$0.2m | 2 deals up, 1 down |
| Adjustment | −$0.3m | "Management haircut" |
| This month's forecast | $3.4m |
Sums: 4.6 − 0.0 − 0.9 − 0.6 + 0.4 + 0.2 − 0.3 = 3.4. Read.
Slipped: seven deals, four for the second time. Open the list; those four are the repeat slippers.
Lost: three of four to one competitor. Open the list; that is a pattern.
New in: five proposal-stage deals pulled into a period with eight weeks left. Open the list; at the team's proposal conversion, they are worth a third of face.
Adjustment: three hundred thousand with no deals. Ask what it is.
| Deal | Bridges it appeared on the slipped line |
|---|---|
| O-8821 | 3 |
| O-8834 | 3 |
| O-8902 | 2 |
Two deals have slipped on three consecutive bridges. They are in the forecast at proposal weight and the team's own history says they close at a twentieth of that.
| Over four periods | Share of starting forecast |
|---|---|
| Slipped out | 18% |
| Lost | 12% |
| Together | 30% |
Next period's roll-up, at this point, carries a thirty percent discount, derived from the bridges, with the deals behind it.
Sum unchecked. A deal on two lines; the reading is on a broken table.
Lines read by total. Seven hundred thousand slipped, and no names.
Adjustment accepted. A number someone wanted, uncheckable.
Bridges not compared. The repeat slippers invisible.
Covirage builds the bridge with every deal on one line, the deal lists behind each, and the adjustment line flagged. The forecast bridge guide covers how the bridge is built, and the slip count guide covers the repeat slippers.
Because a bridge that does not sum has a line missing or a deal on two lines, and every reading after that is on a broken table. The identity is that last forecast plus the lines equals this forecast, exactly, and every deal is on one line.
Because a bridge is an attribution: every dollar of movement to a deal. A line that says 'management adjustment, minus $300,000' has attributed nothing; it is a number someone wanted. It may be right, and it cannot be checked, and it should be rare and explained.
Slipped and lost, together. Their sum over several periods, as a share of what was in the forecast at the start, is how much the roll-up overstates at this point in the period. That share is the discount next period's roll-up carries, and it is derived, not chosen.