Blog · Territory, capacity and quota planning · Consumer goods
BCG matrix analysis compares product categories using market growth and relative market share. Work through supplied market estimates and sales exports, calculate the ratios in Excel, and check the classifications before making portfolio decisions.
BCG matrix analysis classifies a business portfolio by market growth and relative market share. Use dated market-size and competitor-sales estimates alongside your own matching sales export, calculate both axes, and apply stated thresholds. The resulting quadrant is a starting point for a portfolio decision; it does not establish profitability or funding needs.
The framework groups businesses or product lines into stars, cash cows, question marks, and dogs. OpenStax's portfolio-planning explanation describes the categories using market growth and market share. For this analysis, the share axis is relative to the largest competing business in each defined market.
Market growth = Current-period market sales / Prior-period market sales − 1
Relative market share = Your current-period sales / Largest rival's current-period sales
Use the largest rival, even when your own business leads the market. Dividing your sales by your own sales would conceal the size of that lead. Also keep company sales growth separate from market growth: a category can grow while your business loses share.
For this example, high growth means at least 10.0%, and high relative share means at least 1.00. These are stated planning assumptions, not universal performance standards. Apply the same boundary rule throughout: a value exactly on the threshold belongs to the high group.
An illustrative US food-and-beverage company reviews four categories. All figures represent manufacturer net sales to the same US grocery channel. The prior and current periods are the twelve months ended June 30, 2025, and June 30, 2026. Management approved the illustrative market and competitor estimates on July 31, 2026.
| Category | Prior market (USD) | Current market (USD) | Your current sales (USD) | Largest rival sales (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparkling drinks | 50,000,000 | 60,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 8,000,000 |
| Savory snacks | 80,000,000 | 84,000,000 | 21,000,000 | 15,000,000 |
| Oat drinks | 30,000,000 | 36,000,000 | 4,500,000 | 9,000,000 |
| Classic sauces | 40,000,000 | 42,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 10,000,000 |
Keep category definitions, geography, channel, units, period dates, estimate provider, approval date, and rival identity alongside these columns. The SBA's market-research guidance distinguishes existing research from direct research and calls for competitive analysis by product line and market segment. The analysis here uses supplied estimates; calculating a ratio does not collect or validate market research.
Your sales export needs invoice date, product code, category, channel, net sales, and currency. Map each product to one category and include credits and returns consistently. If retail checkout estimates are the only market source, obtain comparable company sales rather than dividing wholesale invoices by retail spending.
First reconcile the category sales with the ledger. With category, reporting-period key, and net sales in columns A through C on Sales, an Excel summary can use:
=SUMIFS(Sales!$C$2:$C$10000,Sales!$A$2:$A$10000,A2,Sales!$B$2:$B$10000,$K$1)
K1 holds the current annual-period key. Microsoft's SUMIFS documentation explains summing values that meet multiple criteria. Check that the range contains the complete export rather than silently omitting later rows. Covirage is not affiliated with Microsoft or Boston Consulting Group.
Put the worked input table in A1:E5. Growth goes in F, relative share in G, and classification in H:
F2 = C2/B2-1
G2 = D2/E2
H2 = IF(F2>=10%,IF(G2>=1,"Star","Question mark"),IF(G2>=1,"Cash cow","Dog"))
Fill down. Check that market and rival denominators are positive before using the formulas; leave missing estimates unresolved rather than assigning a quadrant.
| Category | Growth calculation | Market growth | Relative-share calculation | Relative share | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparkling drinks | 60,000,000 / 50,000,000 − 1 | 20.0% | 12,000,000 / 8,000,000 | 1.50 | Star |
| Savory snacks | 84,000,000 / 80,000,000 − 1 | 5.0% | 21,000,000 / 15,000,000 | 1.40 | Cash cow |
| Oat drinks | 36,000,000 / 30,000,000 − 1 | 20.0% | 4,500,000 / 9,000,000 | 0.50 | Question mark |
| Classic sauces | 42,000,000 / 40,000,000 − 1 | 5.0% | 3,000,000 / 10,000,000 | 0.30 | Dog |
Growth is displayed to one decimal place and relative share to two. Classify using unrounded values.
Own-category sales must total $40,500,000: $12,000,000 + $21,000,000 + $4,500,000 + $3,000,000. That total must match the scoped sales export and its ledger reconciliation. Every category's own sales and largest-rival sales must be no larger than the corresponding market estimate when all measures use the same basis.
Test uncertain inputs separately. Suppose the current Oat drinks market estimate is $32,400,000 instead of $36,000,000, with every other input unchanged. Growth becomes =32400000/30000000-1, or 8.0%. Relative share stays 0.50, but the classification changes from question mark to dog. The difference comes entirely from the supplied market estimate.
Record both cases and ask the market-research owner which estimate is supportable. For wider market drivers, use market trend analysis; for operating volume assumptions, use CPG demand forecasting.
Sparkling drinks needs a capacity and investment review. Savory snacks needs a cash-generation review. Oat drinks needs a case for gaining share, while Classic sauces needs a review of its ongoing role. None of those questions is answered by the quadrant alone.
Compare the classifications with profitability analysis before allocating resources. A high-share business may absorb cash, and a small mature category may earn an attractive contribution. Check whether revenue changes reflect price or volume through a separate price-volume-mix review. Finance should own the reconciled sales figures, commercial teams the category definitions, and strategy the proposed resource decisions.
Bring your sales export and approved, dated market and competitor estimates to Covirage; it maps the columns, and its tools compute and check the supplied figures. The external AI model explains the results with every figure traced to its rows. Create a free Covirage account, which takes about a minute, then set up your business and bring a sample of your own data.
See Covirage for CPG brands for the business context.
Market share divides your sales by total market sales. Relative market share divides your sales by the largest rival's sales in the same market and period. Relative share is a ratio: a value above one means your business is larger than that competing business on the chosen basis.
No. The growth cutoff should suit the categories, planning horizon, and decision. Set it before classifying products and document why it is appropriate. A fixed cutoff is useful for a worked example, but it is not evidence that every market growing below that rate is unattractive.
Yes. The label describes low relative share and low market growth under the chosen thresholds. It does not calculate profit, cash generation, customer retention, or strategic value. A product in that quadrant may remain attractive if it earns a strong contribution and needs little additional investment.
Keep the estimate's source, date, scope, and approval status with the calculation. Test a reasonable alternative estimate and see whether the quadrant changes. If the classification is sensitive, present it as uncertain and obtain better information before committing material resources.