Weighted pipeline

Open in-flight value times the historical conversion of its state at this point in the period, from the desk's own outcomes. Opportunities by stage, renewals by band, proposals by cell, rooms on the books by pickup. Never times a CRM probability someone set in a workshop.

DefinitionOpen in-flight value times the historical conversion of its state at this point in the period, from the desk's own outcomes. Opportunities by stage, renewals by band, proposals by cell, rooms on the books by pickup. Never times a CRM probability someone set in a workshop.

The object differs by desk

A CRM has opportunities; a register has renewals; a proposal log has bids. Each has states and a history.

Renewals are not certain

Weighted by the renewal rate for their band, or coverage is overstated by the non-renewal rate.

How it is computed

Each open deal's value multiplied by the measured probability for its stage, summed, and compared with the target.

Example

Deals of $1.75 million weigh $951,500 on CRM defaults and $619,500 on the team's measured stage rates, against a target of $500,000.

Where it goes wrong

Default probabilities, and few large deals. A $500,000 deal at 50 percent will bring $500,000 or nothing, never $250,000.

Articles that use this term

Forecast and pipeline

Four sales forecasting methods compared, and the bridge that shows where they disagree

The four common ways to forecast a quarter, rep roll-up, stage-weighted pipeline, run rate and historical conversion, what each needs, what each is good and bad at, a worked quarter where they give four different numbers, and why the right output is not one of them but the bridge between them, with the deals that explain the gaps.

16 Sept 20263 min read Forecast and pipeline

Pipeline coverage on ten deals: the whole arithmetic on one page

The complete pipeline coverage calculation on ten open deals small enough to check by hand: the deals by stage and value, the team's historical conversion by stage at this point in the quarter, the face value, the weighted value, the slip counts and the slip adjustment, the remaining target, coverage three ways, the needed multiple, and the deal list that explains the gap, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own snapshot.

16 Sept 20263 min read Forecast and pipeline

Run rate and forecast: why the floor is not the plan, and what the gap between them is made of

Why run rate is the floor a forecast should be compared to rather than a forecast itself, what the gap between the two is made of, new business, expansion, churn, seasonality and known changes, the bridge from run rate to forecast with a line for each, the forecast that sits below run rate and needs a reason, the one far above it and needs pipeline, and the rule that the forecast is defended by the lines between it and the floor.

16 Sept 20263 min read Territory, capacity and quota planning · Consulting and advisory

Sold work against the bench: matching pipeline to the people who will deliver it

How a consulting or advisory firm reconciles its sales pipeline to delivery capacity by practice and by month: sold and weighted-pipeline hours against available hours from the roster, the months where sold work exceeds the bench and the months where the bench exceeds sold work, and why the two failures need opposite responses from the same report.

16 Sept 20262 min read Board and management reporting

Ten questions a CFO asks about sales data, and the table that answers each

The ten questions a chief financial officer puts to the commercial team, does the sales number reconcile, how concentrated are we, what is the base worth, is the forecast believable, where is revenue leaking, what does it cost to serve the top accounts, are credits under control, is the pipeline real, what did the discounting cost, and what changed, each with the computed table that answers it, the identity that makes the answer trustworthy, and the answer a CFO should refuse.

16 Sept 20263 min read Board and management reporting · Consulting and advisory

Ten questions a consulting firm managing director asks, and the table that answers each

The ten questions the managing director of a consulting or advisory firm puts to the practice leads, which clients use one practice, will the sold work fit the bench, which consultants are busy and unprofitable, which proposals cost more than they win, whose book depends on one client, which fixed fees overran, which practices hire while their neighbours bench, what is realisation per client, which clients have gone quiet, and what changed, each with the table from the time entries, the proposal log, the roster and the bills, and the answer to send back.

16 Sept 20262 min read