Deposit flight

Operating balances at a banking relationship falling below a stated share of their own baseline for consecutive months, not explained by the prior year's pattern, while the accounts stay open. Split by the transaction data into moved elsewhere, business shrinking and seasonal.

DefinitionOperating balances at a banking relationship falling below a stated share of their own baseline for consecutive months, not explained by the prior year's pattern, while the accounts stay open. Split by the transaction data into moved elsewhere, business shrinking and seasonal.

The window

Accounts close six to eighteen months after balances move. The decline is when the relationship manager can still ask why.

Counterparty type, not name

Transfers to another institution are the moved-elsewhere signal. The export needs the type of counterparty only.

How it is computed

Average operating balance over the last three months divided by the same months a year earlier, per relationship, flagged when below a stated ratio for consecutive months.

Example

A client's operating balances averaged $2.4 million last year and $1.1 million in the last quarter: 46 percent. Payments volume through the account fell by a similar share. Its facility is up for renewal in eight months.

Where it goes wrong

Balances reported in total. One large inflow elsewhere covers ten relationships draining away.

Articles that use this term

Forecast and pipeline · Commercial banking

Deposit flight by relationship: balances leaving before the customer does

How a commercial bank finds the relationships whose operating balances have fallen against their own baseline while the accounts remain open, from the daily or month-end balance file: the balance baseline per customer, the decline signal, the split between seasonal, business-driven and moved-elsewhere, and the list per relationship manager ranked by the balances that have gone.

16 Sept 20262 min read Coverage and territory

Dormancy by industry: order cadence from weekly to annual, and the threshold that follows

A dormant account is one silent beyond a multiple of its own cadence, and the cadence runs from twice a week to once a year depending on the desk. This hub sets out, for twelve industries, the typical cadence, what silence looks like in that industry's data, the threshold that follows, the run rate that values the account, and the seasonal trap in each, with the full guide for each desk.

16 Sept 20263 min read Territory, capacity and quota planning · Commercial banking

Facility utilisation: committed lines drawn against limits, and what it says about the relationship

How a commercial bank reads utilisation of its committed credit facilities per customer from the facility register and the balance file: drawn against limit, the trend over four quarters, the customers at persistently low utilisation paying commitment fees on lines they do not use, the customers near the limit who will ask for more or go elsewhere, and the relationship reading each pattern supports.

16 Sept 20263 min read Wallet share and penetration · Commercial banking

Ten questions a head of commercial banking asks, and the table that answers each

The ten questions a head of commercial banking puts to the relationship managers, which borrowers hold nothing but the loan, whose balances are leaving before the customer does, which facilities are drawn to the limit and which are paid for and unused, which customers hold fewer products than their sector peers, which lines refer and which only receive, which relationship managers can carry their gap list, which customers moved segment, who has not been contacted at cadence, which products are opened and never used, and what changed, each with the table from the loan book, the balances and the CRM, and the answer to send back.

16 Sept 20262 min read Alternatives and comparisons · Commercial banking

How to choose analytics software for commercial banking: questions, data and traps

How commercial banks should choose analytics software: start from the questions, check the data you hold, ask vendors ten questions, avoid the traps.

24 Sept 20264 min read Forecast and pipeline · Commercial banking

Deposit flight on five relationships: the whole arithmetic on one page

The complete deposit flight calculation on five commercial banking relationships, small enough to check by hand: the trailing twelve month-end balances and the median as baseline, the last three months against the baseline and against the same months last year, the decline rule, the transaction split that says whether the money moved to another bank, the business shrank or the season turned, the balances gone, and the assertion that balances reconcile to receipts and payments, so a reader can reproduce every figure and then run it on their own balance file.

17 Sept 20263 min read